Disclaimer & method

Not financial advice

This is an educational / portfolio project. It is not financial advice and does not come from a registered broker or investment adviser. Everything shown is a model-implied probability or range — never a guarantee. Past and backtested performance does not predict future results. Bitcoin is highly volatile and you can lose your entire investment. Use at your own risk and consult a licensed professional before making any decision.

How it works

Each hour, a quantitative baseline (a GJR-GARCH volatility model over recent prices) produces a central estimate, a confidence range, and a probability that BTC is higher at each horizon. Claude (an LLM) then reads condensed world-event signals — news tone, the Fear & Greed index, perp funding, open interest, and implied volatility — and applies a small, hard-bounded adjustment to drift and volatility. If the model is unavailable, the site falls back to the untouched baseline.

Why honesty matters here

At short horizons Bitcoin behaves much like a random walk, so the model is expected to roughly tie a naive “no change” benchmark. The public record reports exactly that — the calibration, the significance test, and our misses — including when the method fails to beat the random walk. The value of this site is its transparency and its track record, not a promise of returns.