Forecast recap — 2026-W25
In week 2026-W25 the BTC Event Oracle resolved 62 calls; 52% of directional calls were correct, coverage was 94%, and the average price error was 237%.
Every call below was graded against a naive random walk — the “no change” benchmark. Short-horizon Bitcoin is close to a random walk, so the honest, expected result is to roughly tie it; we publish the week as it landed, misses included. See the full live record on the accuracy page.
The week in numbers
- Resolved
- 62
- Hit rate
- 52%
- Coverage
- 94%
- Avg error
- 237%
Hit rate is the share of up/down calls that landed correctly (50% = a coin-flip). Coverage is how often the real price finished inside the stated range. Avg error is the mean % by which the central price guess missed the realised price.
Every call, graded
| Horizon | Said | Actual | Est. | Realised | Range | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week | up | down | $64,522 | $63,569 | in range | ✗ miss |
| 1 Week | up | down | $64,438 | $63,569 | in range | ✗ miss |
| 1 Week | up | down | $64,483 | $63,569 | in range | ✗ miss |
| 1 Week | up | down | $64,624 | $63,569 | in range | ✗ miss |
| 1 Week | down | down | $64,258 | $63,569 | in range | ✓ hit |
| 1 Week | down | down | $63,976 | $63,569 | in range | ✓ hit |
| 1 Week | up | down | $64,094 | $63,569 | in range | ✗ miss |
| 1 Week | up | down | $63,746 | $63,569 | in range | ✗ miss |
| 1 Week | up | down | $63,854 | $63,569 | in range | ✗ miss |
| 1 Week | down | down | $64,785 | $63,569 | in range | ✓ hit |
| 1 Week | down | down | $65,365 | $63,569 | in range | ✓ hit |
| 1 Week | down | up | $63,521 | $64,172 | in range | ✗ miss |
A ✓ hit means the directional call matched what actually happened; ✗ miss means it didn't — the ✓/✗ text carries the meaning, never colour alone. At short horizons Bitcoin behaves close to a random walk, so a mixed week is the normal, honest outcome rather than a broken model.