Forecast recap — 2026-W26
In week 2026-W26 the BTC Event Oracle resolved 57 calls; 70% of directional calls were correct, coverage was 44%, and the average price error was 573%.
Every call below was graded against a naive random walk — the “no change” benchmark. Short-horizon Bitcoin is close to a random walk, so the honest, expected result is to roughly tie it; we publish the week as it landed, misses included. See the full live record on the accuracy page.
The week in numbers
- Resolved
- 57
- Hit rate
- 70%
- Coverage
- 44%
- Avg error
- 573%
Hit rate is the share of up/down calls that landed correctly (50% = a coin-flip). Coverage is how often the real price finished inside the stated range. Avg error is the mean % by which the central price guess missed the realised price.
Every call, graded
| Horizon | Said | Actual | Est. | Realised | Range | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week | down | down | $64,040 | $59,691 | out of range | ✓ hit |
| 1 Week | down | down | $64,125 | $59,691 | out of range | ✓ hit |
| 1 Week | down | down | $63,855 | $59,691 | out of range | ✓ hit |
| 1 Week | down | down | $64,009 | $59,691 | out of range | ✓ hit |
| 1 Week | up | down | $64,037 | $59,691 | out of range | ✗ miss |
| 1 Week | up | down | $64,167 | $59,691 | out of range | ✗ miss |
| 1 Week | up | down | $64,095 | $59,691 | out of range | ✗ miss |
| 1 Week | down | down | $64,076 | $59,691 | out of range | ✓ hit |
| 1 Week | up | down | $63,762 | $59,691 | out of range | ✗ miss |
| 1 Week | up | down | $63,684 | $59,691 | out of range | ✗ miss |
| 1 Week | up | down | $63,572 | $60,127 | out of range | ✗ miss |
| 1 Week | up | down | $63,541 | $60,127 | out of range | ✗ miss |
A ✓ hit means the directional call matched what actually happened; ✗ miss means it didn't — the ✓/✗ text carries the meaning, never colour alone. At short horizons Bitcoin behaves close to a random walk, so a mixed week is the normal, honest outcome rather than a broken model.