Forecast recap — 2026-W35
In week 2026-W35 the BTC Event Oracle resolved 335 calls; 30% of directional calls were correct, coverage was 34%, and the average price error was 1160%.
Every call below was graded against a naive random walk — the “no change” benchmark. Short-horizon Bitcoin is close to a random walk, so the honest, expected result is to roughly tie it; we publish the week as it landed, misses included. See the full live record on the accuracy page.
The week in numbers
- Resolved
- 335
- Hit rate
- 30%
- Coverage
- 34%
- Avg error
- 1160%
Hit rate is the share of up/down calls that landed correctly (50% = a coin-flip). Coverage is how often the real price finished inside the stated range. Avg error is the mean % by which the central price guess missed the realised price.
Every call, graded
| Horizon | Said | Actual | Est. | Realised | Range | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Month | down | up | $65,052 | $78,005 | out of range | ✗ miss |
| 1 Week | down | up | $77,183 | $78,005 | in range | ✗ miss |
| 1 Week | down | up | $76,934 | $78,005 | in range | ✗ miss |
| 1 Week | down | up | $76,831 | $78,005 | in range | ✗ miss |
| 1 Month | down | up | $63,997 | $78,005 | out of range | ✗ miss |
| 1 Week | down | up | $76,567 | $78,005 | in range | ✗ miss |
| 1 Week | down | up | $76,147 | $78,005 | in range | ✗ miss |
| 1 Week | down | up | $75,990 | $78,005 | in range | ✗ miss |
| 1 Week | down | up | $76,089 | $78,005 | in range | ✗ miss |
| 1 Week | down | up | $76,036 | $78,005 | in range | ✗ miss |
| 1 Week | down | up | $75,926 | $78,005 | in range | ✗ miss |
| 1 Month | down | up | $63,763 | $78,005 | out of range | ✗ miss |
A ✓ hit means the directional call matched what actually happened; ✗ miss means it didn't — the ✓/✗ text carries the meaning, never colour alone. At short horizons Bitcoin behaves close to a random walk, so a mixed week is the normal, honest outcome rather than a broken model.