Forecast recap — 2026-W38
In week 2026-W38 the BTC Event Oracle resolved 297 calls; 35% of directional calls were correct, coverage was 24%, and the average price error was 1325%.
Every call below was graded against a naive random walk — the “no change” benchmark. Short-horizon Bitcoin is close to a random walk, so the honest, expected result is to roughly tie it; we publish the week as it landed, misses included. See the full live record on the accuracy page.
The week in numbers
- Resolved
- 297
- Hit rate
- 35%
- Coverage
- 24%
- Avg error
- 1325%
Hit rate is the share of up/down calls that landed correctly (50% = a coin-flip). Coverage is how often the real price finished inside the stated range. Avg error is the mean % by which the central price guess missed the realised price.
Every call, graded
| Horizon | Said | Actual | Est. | Realised | Range | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Month | up | up | $73,209 | $81,436 | out of range | ✓ hit |
| 1 Week | up | up | $77,286 | $81,436 | out of range | ✓ hit |
| 1 Month | up | up | $75,590 | $81,436 | in range | ✓ hit |
| 1 Month | down | up | $74,164 | $81,436 | in range | ✗ miss |
| 1 Month | up | up | $74,820 | $81,436 | in range | ✓ hit |
| 1 Month | up | up | $75,043 | $81,436 | in range | ✓ hit |
| 1 Month | down | up | $75,049 | $81,436 | in range | ✗ miss |
| 1 Month | down | up | $75,121 | $81,436 | in range | ✗ miss |
| 1 Week | down | up | $77,213 | $81,436 | out of range | ✗ miss |
| 1 Month | down | up | $76,266 | $81,436 | in range | ✗ miss |
| 1 Month | up | up | $76,451 | $81,436 | in range | ✓ hit |
| 1 Month | down | up | $78,068 | $81,436 | in range | ✗ miss |
A ✓ hit means the directional call matched what actually happened; ✗ miss means it didn't — the ✓/✗ text carries the meaning, never colour alone. At short horizons Bitcoin behaves close to a random walk, so a mixed week is the normal, honest outcome rather than a broken model.