Forecast recap — 2026-W39
In week 2026-W39 the BTC Event Oracle resolved 210 calls; 32% of directional calls were correct, coverage was 81%, and the average price error was 819%.
Every call below was graded against a naive random walk — the “no change” benchmark. Short-horizon Bitcoin is close to a random walk, so the honest, expected result is to roughly tie it; we publish the week as it landed, misses included. See the full live record on the accuracy page.
The week in numbers
- Resolved
- 210
- Hit rate
- 32%
- Coverage
- 81%
- Avg error
- 819%
Hit rate is the share of up/down calls that landed correctly (50% = a coin-flip). Coverage is how often the real price finished inside the stated range. Avg error is the mean % by which the central price guess missed the realised price.
Every call, graded
| Horizon | Said | Actual | Est. | Realised | Range | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Month | up | up | $80,395 | $83,312 | in range | ✓ hit |
| 1 Week | down | up | $80,995 | $83,312 | in range | ✗ miss |
| 1 Week | down | up | $80,240 | $83,312 | in range | ✗ miss |
| 1 Month | down | up | $79,569 | $83,312 | in range | ✗ miss |
| 1 Week | up | up | $80,486 | $83,312 | in range | ✓ hit |
| 1 Week | up | up | $81,161 | $83,312 | in range | ✓ hit |
| 1 Week | up | up | $81,133 | $83,312 | in range | ✓ hit |
| 1 Month | up | up | $77,533 | $83,312 | in range | ✓ hit |
| 1 Week | down | up | $80,778 | $83,312 | in range | ✗ miss |
| 1 Week | down | up | $81,076 | $83,312 | in range | ✗ miss |
| 1 Week | down | up | $81,178 | $84,480 | in range | ✗ miss |
| 1 Month | up | up | $78,916 | $84,480 | in range | ✓ hit |
A ✓ hit means the directional call matched what actually happened; ✗ miss means it didn't — the ✓/✗ text carries the meaning, never colour alone. At short horizons Bitcoin behaves close to a random walk, so a mixed week is the normal, honest outcome rather than a broken model.