Forecast recap — 2026-W40
In week 2026-W40 the BTC Event Oracle resolved 84 calls; 49% of directional calls were correct, coverage was 100%, and the average price error was 478%.
Every call below was graded against a naive random walk — the “no change” benchmark. Short-horizon Bitcoin is close to a random walk, so the honest, expected result is to roughly tie it; we publish the week as it landed, misses included. See the full live record on the accuracy page.
The week in numbers
- Resolved
- 84
- Hit rate
- 49%
- Coverage
- 100%
- Avg error
- 478%
Hit rate is the share of up/down calls that landed correctly (50% = a coin-flip). Coverage is how often the real price finished inside the stated range. Avg error is the mean % by which the central price guess missed the realised price.
Every call, graded
| Horizon | Said | Actual | Est. | Realised | Range | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Month | up | up | $81,176 | $86,587 | in range | ✓ hit |
| 1 Week | up | up | $84,506 | $86,587 | in range | ✓ hit |
| 1 Month | up | up | $81,241 | $86,587 | in range | ✓ hit |
| 1 Week | up | up | $84,772 | $86,587 | in range | ✓ hit |
| 1 Month | down | up | $81,130 | $86,587 | in range | ✗ miss |
| 1 Week | up | up | $84,958 | $86,587 | in range | ✓ hit |
| 1 Month | down | up | $78,850 | $86,587 | in range | ✗ miss |
| 1 Week | down | up | $84,532 | $86,587 | in range | ✗ miss |
| 1 Month | up | up | $79,703 | $86,587 | in range | ✓ hit |
| 1 Month | up | up | $79,915 | $86,587 | in range | ✓ hit |
| 1 Week | down | up | $84,549 | $86,587 | in range | ✗ miss |
| 1 Month | up | up | $79,849 | $86,587 | in range | ✓ hit |
A ✓ hit means the directional call matched what actually happened; ✗ miss means it didn't — the ✓/✗ text carries the meaning, never colour alone. At short horizons Bitcoin behaves close to a random walk, so a mixed week is the normal, honest outcome rather than a broken model.