Forecast recap — 2026-W41
In week 2026-W41 the BTC Event Oracle resolved 84 calls; 40% of directional calls were correct, coverage was 99%, and the average price error was 419%.
Every call below was graded against a naive random walk — the “no change” benchmark. Short-horizon Bitcoin is close to a random walk, so the honest, expected result is to roughly tie it; we publish the week as it landed, misses included. See the full live record on the accuracy page.
The week in numbers
- Resolved
- 84
- Hit rate
- 40%
- Coverage
- 99%
- Avg error
- 419%
Hit rate is the share of up/down calls that landed correctly (50% = a coin-flip). Coverage is how often the real price finished inside the stated range. Avg error is the mean % by which the central price guess missed the realised price.
Every call, graded
| Horizon | Said | Actual | Est. | Realised | Range | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week | up | down | $84,864 | $83,868 | in range | ✗ miss |
| 1 Month | down | up | $76,643 | $83,868 | in range | ✗ miss |
| 1 Month | down | up | $76,992 | $83,868 | in range | ✗ miss |
| 1 Week | down | down | $84,938 | $83,868 | in range | ✓ hit |
| 1 Month | up | up | $77,160 | $83,868 | in range | ✓ hit |
| 1 Week | down | down | $85,194 | $83,868 | in range | ✓ hit |
| 1 Month | down | up | $78,962 | $83,868 | in range | ✗ miss |
| 1 Week | down | down | $85,292 | $83,868 | in range | ✓ hit |
| 1 Month | down | up | $77,506 | $83,868 | in range | ✗ miss |
| 1 Week | down | down | $85,357 | $83,868 | in range | ✓ hit |
| 1 Month | down | up | $77,157 | $83,868 | in range | ✗ miss |
| 1 Week | up | down | $86,446 | $83,868 | in range | ✗ miss |
A ✓ hit means the directional call matched what actually happened; ✗ miss means it didn't — the ✓/✗ text carries the meaning, never colour alone. At short horizons Bitcoin behaves close to a random walk, so a mixed week is the normal, honest outcome rather than a broken model.