Who runs the BTC Event Oracle?
The BTC Event Oracle is an independent, non-commercial, educational project. It takes no compensation, sells nothing, promotes nothing, and gives no personalized advice — its only claim to your trust is an open, scored track record and fully open-source code.
We deliberately don't lead with a person's name or a résumé, because on this site credentials don't matter — the receipts do. Every forecast is timestamped, published in advance, and graded openly against a random-walk benchmark. You don't have to trust the author; you can check the score.
What it is
A single, systematic Bitcoin forecast, published on a fixed hourly schedule for the 1-week, 1-month, and 1-year horizons — each as a price range plus a probability, never a single magic number. A quantitative GJR-GARCH baseline does the math; Claude (an LLM) reads condensed world-event signals and applies a small, hard-capped adjustment. It is a transparency-and-accountability exercise, not a tip service.
What it isn't
It is not financial advice, not a signal group, and not run by a licensed adviser. Nothing here is personalized to you, nothing is monetized, and no product, token, exchange, or affiliate link is being promoted. There is nothing to buy and nothing to sign up for. If you are making real financial decisions, talk to a licensed professional.
Why you can trust it (or not)
Credibility here rests on two open things, not on authority:
- · An open, scored track record. Every call is graded when it comes due, including the misses, with proper scoring rules. See the accuracy record →
- · Open-source code. The engine, the model, and the grading are all public — you can read exactly how every number is produced. Read the source on GitHub →
For exactly how the forecast is built and graded, read the methodology.
The honest bottom line
Nobody can reliably predict Bitcoin's price, and this project never pretends otherwise — at short horizons it's expected to roughly tie a naive “no change” guess, and it says so out loud. The point isn't to be a crystal ball; it's to show a method in the open and hold it accountable. Read the full disclaimer.