Bitcoin implied volatility (Deribit DVOL)
The options market's forward-looking estimate of how much Bitcoin will move (annualised %).
Deribit's DVOL index is the market-implied expectation of Bitcoin's volatility over the next 30 days, derived from options prices. Higher DVOL means traders are paying up for protection and expect bigger swings. Because it is forward-looking and priced by real money, implied volatility is one of the more evidence-backed inputs the Oracle reads — it directly informs how wide the forecast range should be.
Recent readings
Deribit implied vol (DVOL) 36.3% annualized, falling (calmer)
| Observed | Value | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 07:00 AM UTC | 36.33% | Deribit implied vol (DVOL) 36.3% annualized, falling (calmer) |
| Jul 21, 04:00 AM UTC | 36.3% | Deribit implied vol (DVOL) 36.3% annualized, rising (more fear/uncertainty) |
| Jul 21, 12:00 AM UTC | 36.25% | Deribit implied vol (DVOL) 36.2% annualized, falling (calmer) |
| Jul 20, 11:00 PM UTC | 36.27% | Deribit implied vol (DVOL) 36.3% annualized, rising (more fear/uncertainty) |
| Jul 20, 09:00 PM UTC | 36.16% | Deribit implied vol (DVOL) 36.2% annualized, rising (more fear/uncertainty) |
| Jul 20, 08:00 PM UTC | 36.14% | Deribit implied vol (DVOL) 36.1% annualized, falling (calmer) |
| Jul 20, 07:00 PM UTC | 36.03% | Deribit implied vol (DVOL) 36.0% annualized, rising (more fear/uncertainty) |
| Jul 20, 04:00 PM UTC | 35.96% | Deribit implied vol (DVOL) 36.0% annualized, rising (more fear/uncertainty) |
| Jul 20, 03:00 PM UTC | 35.79% | Deribit implied vol (DVOL) 35.8% annualized, falling (calmer) |
| Jul 20, 12:00 PM UTC | 36.01% | Deribit implied vol (DVOL) 36.0% annualized, rising (more fear/uncertainty) |
| Jul 20, 10:00 AM UTC | 36.23% | Deribit implied vol (DVOL) 36.2% annualized, falling (calmer) |
| Jul 20, 07:00 AM UTC | 36.91% | Deribit implied vol (DVOL) 36.9% annualized, falling (calmer) |
| Jul 20, 04:00 AM UTC | 36.04% | Deribit implied vol (DVOL) 36.0% annualized, falling (calmer) |
| Jul 20, 12:00 AM UTC | 36.08% | Deribit implied vol (DVOL) 36.1% annualized, falling (calmer) |
How the Oracle uses it
This is one signal among several, never a directional call on its own. The forecast starts as plain math (a GJR-GARCH volatility model); the signal is read each hour as context, and Claude may make small, hard-capped adjustments to the range and confidence — it can't swing the guess wildly. Every forecast is then scored openly against a random-walk benchmark, so you can judge the result rather than trust it. See the accuracy record and the full methodology.
The other signals
- · Crypto Fear & Greed Index — A 0–100 gauge of crypto market sentiment, where low = fear and high = greed.
- · Bitcoin perpetual funding rate — The periodic fee leveraged perp traders pay; positive means longs pay shorts (crowded long).
- · Bitcoin open interest — The total value of outstanding leveraged futures positions — how much “fuel” is riding on price moves.
- · Bitcoin news tone (GDELT) — Whether global news coverage of Bitcoin is, on balance, positive or negative right now.